Friday, June 29, 2012

NBA Draft: Lottery Recap

For whatever reason, I've decided to record my thoughts on many of the picks from Thursday night's draft. Let's get right to it.

Saturday, March 24, 2012

Louisville, Ohio State Advance to Final Four

Half the field for St. Louis is set.

In the first matchup, the upset-ridden West regional final, Louisville surged late to stun Florida by four. Full credit to the Cardinals, particularly Russ Smith (who made several big shots down the stretch in place of Peyton Siva, who had fouled out) and Chane Behanan (who had a big second half after being quiet in the first 20 minutes). But the Gators earn demerits for their lack of offensive execution in the second half and lack of poise down the stretch. Florida was red-hot from deep in the first half against the Louisville zone, but didn't adjust well when the Cardinals switched to man-to-man. And they took some bad, early shots down the stretch.

Friday, March 23, 2012

Half of the Elite Eight Set

Aside from the first game, which saw Syracuse squeak by Wisconsin when the Badgers couldn't get a good shot off on their final possession, Thursday's action was pretty boring: Louisville's Gorgui Dieng controlled the interior with seven blocked shots as the Cardinals stymied Michigan State; Ohio State lost its concentration and a 12-point halftime lead, but regrouped to beat Cincy by 15; and freshman Bradley Beal led Florida past Marquette in a high-intensity yet sloppy game that was pretty similar to Marquette's second-round win over Murray State.

The Syracuse-Wisconsin game was a gem, though.

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Sweet 16 preview

By no means is this a complete preview; it's more of a collection of semi-connected thoughts about the Sweet 16 games, which get started Thursday night. Take a look after the jump.

Monday, March 19, 2012

Round Two, Day Two

The marathon portion of the college basketball season is over. Since Thursday, it's been nothing but wall-to-wall hoops, 12 straight hours of basketball a day for four days. (And all this coming on the heels of Championship Week, an even more grueling endurance test!) Yeah, I know; I'm sad, too.

Sixteen teams remain. A bit later in the week, I'll put up a Sweet 16 preview post breaking down the upcoming action. For now, though, let's take a quick look at Sunday's games.

Saturday, March 17, 2012

Round Two, Day One

Blogging after watching all this ball is starting to wear me out.

After Friday's excitement, Saturday was relatively tame. There were no upsets among the eight games on the slate. But there still some pretty good games.

Day Two Thoughts

My reactions to day two of the second round, a.k.a. day two of the first round, a.k.a. the most historic day in NCAA tournament history.

Four times, and only four times, prior to Friday had a #15 seed beaten a #2 seed in the first round. On Friday, it happened twice. Lehigh-Duke got top billing on Sportscenter even though it happened after Norfolk State-Missouri, so we'll start there after the jump.

Friday, March 16, 2012

Day One Thoughts

Long day. Caught all the action, and at least a minute or two of every game. Let's go region-by-region, starting with the big story/non-story of the day: the Historical 16/1 Upset That Kinda Sorta Almost Was.

Thursday, March 15, 2012

Midwest Preview

[SOUTH] [WEST] [EAST]

The field of 64 was finally set Wednesday night with the last of the play-in games in Dayton. UVM comfortably beat Lamar for the right to play sacrificial lamb to North Carolina on Friday (Go Cats Go!), but the big story was South Florida, which absolutely demolished California in the night game. A lot of people didn't think the Bulls belonged in the field despite a 12-6 Big East record, and some of those same people were probably grumbling that the Pac-12 got just one at-large bid. So such a convincing win was pretty surprising.

Frankly, of all the #1/#2 pairings in the tournament, I thought North Carolina and Kansas got the biggest break from the committee. Their paths to the Elite 8 look pretty clear to me.

East Preview

[SOUTH] [WEST] [MIDWEST]

When the brackets were announced, Syracuse, the top seed in the East, was my national champion (and had been since December. Truth be told, though, I was a bit worried about the potential Sweet 16 matchup with Vanderbilt, a team that I had been high on at the start of the year and that came on strong to upset Kentucky in the SEC final. So when the news came down that Fab Melo, the vastly improved sophomore center who anchors Syracuse's vaunted 2-3 zone, it was enough to make me re-consider my pick. There are a bunch of teams that could win the region -- I've gone back and forth quite a bit on this one. Let's get to it.

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

West Preview

[SOUTH] [EAST] [MIDWEST]

I never know if the Committee does stuff like this on purpose, but the West region this year is absolutely loaded with teams that are dominated by excellent perimeter play. (Iona's shocking loss to BYU in the play-in game Tuesday night robbed the region of more guard talent in NBA prospect Scott Machado and Arizona transfer Lamont "Momo" Jones.) I love good guard play, and my two "adopted" teams this year, Missouri and Long Beach State, are in the region, so it's safe to say I'll be tuning in to almost every game. Let's get on with the preview.

South Preview

[WEST] [EAST] [MIDWEST]

First of all, what a start to March Madness! In case you missed it, you missed two of the most improbable comebacks in tournament history.

In the early game, Mississippi Valley State led Western Kentucky by 16 points with 4:52 remaining in what was a poorly-played and, up to that point, dull game. It took less than two and a half minutes for the Hilltoppers to erase all but one point of that deficit. They tied it up a minute later, and ended up winning by one. WKU won despite committing 27 turnovers, in large part due to a 53-30 edge on the glass. (MVSU's complete collapse when faced with pressure defense in the final minutes helped, too).

That was just the opening act, however. In the late game, Iona looked like it was poised to run BYU right out of the gym, scoring 49 points in the first 13:48 and taking a 25-point lead. Incredibly, the Gaels managed just 17 points over the final 26 minutes, and the Cougars won going away.

Let's hope we haven't peaked. These were exciting games, but each of the four teams in action played some bad basketball. There's room for improvement.

On to my preview of the South region!

Monday, March 12, 2012

Evaluating the Committee

The bubble talk is over, the brackets are out. A few words about the committee before breaking down the brackets and making my picks later in the week.

Top seeds
I generally don't get too caught up in who is a number one and who is a number two, because it doesn't really matter -- two seeds lose a little more often in the second round, but after that you're playing a bunch of really good teams anyway and it doesn't really matter what seed you are. (Interesting note: according to this site, #2 seeds are 58-21 all-time against #7 seeds in the second round (comparable to the 55-14 mark #1 seeds have against #8 seeds), but just 29-21 against #10 seeds.) This year is really no exception, especially with Kentucky and Syracuse the clear 1-2 at the top. I think Michigan State, as Big Ten regular season co-champ and tournament winner, is also an easy pick. For the fourth spot, I think you can make the case for a few teams, and with Kansas and Missouri splitting the Big 12 crowns, for me, the choice is between North Carolina and Ohio State. Both teams are regular season conference champions (co-champs, in the Buckeyes case) who lost in their conference title game, and they have very similar RPI and strength of schedule. The Big Ten is stronger top-to-bottom than the ACC was this year, but 14-2 in league play looks a lot better than 13-5. Like I said, it doesn't matter.

The seed list
For the first time ever, the Committee released the top-to-bottom seed list, 1 through 68.

The whole thing turned out to be less interesting than I thought, but the one revelation of sorts was that the "S curve" is pretty much non-existent, and is sacrificed for keeping teams close to home and other bracketing principles. The advantage given to the top overall seed, Kentucky, seems to be limited to: 1) having the regional closes to home; 2) playing the "worst" #16 seed; and 3) not having to play the second overall seed, Syracuse, until the national final, potentially.

At first, this pissed me off -- what's the point of having the overall seed list if you aren't going to use it? -- but the more I think about it, the more it makes sense to me. The S curve method gives the top overall seed an advantage in that they get the theoretically easiest opponent in the first round (which doesn't really matter, since a #1 has never lost to a #16, and it would put the worst #2, #4, #6, and #8 in that bracket, but the flip side of that is that the best #3, #5, #7, and #9 would be in that bracket as well. Without any real meaningful distinction between, say, the 16th overall seed and the 17th overall seed, a straight S Curve seems relatively meaningless and you might as well try and keep teams in their natural geographical regions as much as possible.

Bubble teams
I'm lacking the energy to research and debate the bubble teams. All the snubbed teams lost games they should have won, as usual, and thus have no complaints. The only change I'd really make is Washington over BYU. But there are two points I want to address.

First, while I find myself increasingly annoyed by Doug Gottlieb, he made a great point on ESPN's Bracketology that I want to mention and expand on. Noting that Drexel, 16-2 in the Colonial (which spawned recent Final Four Cinderellas George Mason and VCU) and 27-6 overall was left out and that Iona, 15-3 in the significantly less competitive Metro Atlantic and 25-7 overall was included, Gottlieb pointed to the obvious difference between the two: out-of-conference strength of schedule. He then took it a step further, noting that Iona went a month without playing a home game, playing eight in a row on the road between November 28 and January 3. Gottlieb's point: The Committee is holding the mid-majors to a ridiculously high standard. Sure, you don't have to win your league, you just have to play a ton of road games, and maybe get lucky and get into one of the pre-season events.

He's right, and let me take it a step further: These kids are allegedly student-athletes. Playing a mess of road games in December (the only month that is really available for non-conference games), when most universities administer their final exams, really flies in the face of the idea that the players are supposed to be students first.

Second, I read an article that said that had Xavier beaten St. Bonaventure in the Atlantic 10 championship game (thereby freeing up an at-large spot), the Committee would have held a final vote on six teams -- Drexel, Miami, Oral Roberts, Seton Hall, Mississippi State, and Nevada -- for that final spot.

I don't know the methodology, but this strikes me as an odd way to do things. I'm a bit surprised that some sort of pecking order among those six didn't shake out in the selection of the other 36 at-larges, first of all, but I also wonder just how the vote would work. The Committe is comprised of ten members, if I'm not mistaken, and I can only assume that those six teams were in the conversation because at least one of the members of the Committee thought that they should be in over the other five. So what happens if the initial vote goes 2-2-2-2-1-1? What would happen if there were five teams under consideration, and the vote went 2-2-2-2-2?

I don't know, I always envisioned the selection process as more of a negotiated process than something they voted on.

I'll be breaking down the brackets later in the week.

Saturday, March 10, 2012

Selection Saturday Schedule

Today is my favorite day of the year! As much as I love the NCAA tournament, the end of the conference tournament provides more high-quality basketball than any other day of the college basketball season.

For handy reference, I thought I'd post the TV schedule online. All times Eastern.

11 Vermont vs. Stony Brook (ESPN2)
11:30 Marshall vs. Memphis (CBS)
1 Kentucky vs. Florida (ABC)
1 North Carolina vs. North Carolina State (ESPN)
1 Bethune-Cookman vs. Norfolk State (ESPN2)
1:30 Michigan State vs. Wisconsin (CBS)
3 McNeese State vs. Lamar (ESPN2)
3:30 Mississippi vs. Vanderbilt (ABC)
3:30 Duke vs. Florida State (ESPN)
4 Michigan vs. Ohio State (CBS)
5:30 Baylor vs. Missouri (ESPN)
6 Arizona vs. Colorado (CBS)
7 New Mexico vs. San Diego State (NBC Sports)
8 Ohio vs. Akron (ESPN2)
8 Texas Southern vs. Mississippi Valley State (ESPNU)
9 Cincinnati vs. Louisville (ESPN)
10 Long Beach State vs. UC-Santa Barbara (ESPN2)
Midnight Louisiana Tech vs. New Mexico State (ESPN2)

Tuesday, January 31, 2012

The Best Dunk Ever

I don't normally post stuff like this, and I know it's been a while since I posted on here last, but you can't call yourself a basketball blogger if you're not linking to or posting or tweeting about the all-time posterization of Kendrick Perkins last night, courtesy of Blake Griffin.

Okay, okay, Griffin uses his off arm on Perkins for leverage -- like he needs any help getting higher. And yeah, it's not the cleanest finish. I suppose if you want to go strictly by the book, it's technically not even a dunk.

Call it whatever you want -- it's the most spectacular play of its kind I've ever seen. Check it out for yourself.

Thursday, January 12, 2012

Wisconsin Gets Well; Will Pittsburgh?

It has been a very interesting start to the conference season in college basketball, and nothing over the first couple of weeks of 2012 has been more surprising than the horrific starts of two perennial power-conference powers: Wisconsin of the Big Ten, and Pittsburgh of the Big East. The Badgers dropped three straight after opening conference play with a win at Nebraska, including losses to Iowa (yuck) and Michigan State on their usually impenetrable home floor. The Panthers have dropped their first four conference games (and five overall), including two defeats at the Petersen Events Center, where they were practically unbeatable before this season (they also dropped non-conference games at home to Long Beach State and Wagner).

Both of these teams are accustomed to being at or near the top of their respective leagues, and both were expected to more or less maintain the status quo this season. So is there any hope for either of them?

Monday, January 9, 2012

Metal Monday: Lord Stereo

Programming note: Nearly a full month without posting. Two reasons: 1) I bit off more than I could chew with my initial posting schedule, and 2) I'm studying for the Nevada bar exam. The latter is taking up quite a bit of my basketball-viewing time and even more of my posting time, so I expect that I won't post much over the next couple of months. I do hope to post a bit more often, though, especially with conference play starting to ramp up and some really interesting stuff happening (surprising Big East teams, Wisconsin losing three straight Big Ten games, etc.).

One thing I also plan to resume/keep going is Metal Monday. And so, via Metal Underground, I give you the stream of the debut album of Lord Stereo, a Polish garage band.

Sunday, December 18, 2011

Notable Results From Saturday, December 17

Syracuse 88, North Carolina State 72
Just a few hours after I had tepidly endorsed Ohio State as the best team in America, the top-ranked Orange made me reconsider that position by ripping off a 23-0 run in Raleigh near the end of the first half. The Wolfpack climbed all the way back into it a the start of the second, but Syracuse won going away. Jim Boeheim's club has a half-dozen guys who can create their own shot, plenty of three-point shooting, and their famous 2-3 zone seems to be creating more turnovers than usual. Scratch what I said earlier -- these guys are my pick.

Butler 67, Purdue 65
Andrew Smith's tip-in with one second left capped a big second-half rally for the Bulldogs, who had struggled with a difficult schedule in the early part of the season. The Boilers went ice-cold from the floor and the free throw line in the second half in blowing their second big second-half lead of the season (they lost to Xavier earlier in the year.)

Baylor 86, BYU 83
Perry Jones III shook off a bruised knee to provide the game-icing putback, the final two of his career-high 28 points. The sixth-ranked Bears trailed by double-digits before pulling out this road win.

Florida 84, Texas A&M 64
The Gators scored 18 of the first 20 points and never looked back, leading by 25 at halftime. Even with Khris Middleton back, the Aggies look no better than the fourth-best team in the Big XII.

Gonzaga 71, Arizona 60
The Bulldogs jumped all over the Wildcats in Seattle, then withstood a late charge. Elias Harris led the Zags with 25.

Louisville 95, Memphis 87
I wish I could have seen this one, but I had Gonzaga-Arizona instead (and ended up watching the Indiana-Notre Dame snoozefest). All seven Cardinals who scored hit double figures, led by Russ Smith's 25. Will Barton led Memphis with 28 points and 16 boards. I suspect that the Tigers, who have been up and down in the early-going, won't be too upset with this performance on the road.

UNLV 64, Illinois 48
The Rebels, who upset then-No. 1 North Carolina with a barrage of three-point shooting, took a different path to victory on Saturday in Chicago, holding the Illini to 25.4 percent shooting and forcing 16 turnovers. Sophomore forward Mike Moser posted his seventh double-double of the year -- he's failed to reach double-figures in rebounds just three times in 13 games this season. Illinois, which jumped into the top 25 by virtue of a win over Gonzaga two weeks ago, lost for the first time this year.

Indiana State 61, Vanderbilt 55
The Sycamores pulled off the day's biggest upset, going on the road to win at Vandy. Now at full strength, this is a disappointing loss for the 6-4 Commodores, who I expected to challenge for the SEC crown.

Georgetown 81, American 55
The Eagles stuck with the Hoyas for a half, which seems to happen every time they play Georgetown.

Iona 73, Vermont 72
UVM scored the first 11 points of the game, but Iona came back behind Michael Glover and Momo Jones. Prior to the tip, UVM retired #45 in honor of Trevor Gaines, a former standout who died in the summer of 2010 while playing a pick-up game in Las Vegas.

Saturday, December 17, 2011

Ohio State 74, South Carolina 66

[recap] [box score]

By this time, I usually like to have my national champion picked. Some years, I have a strong feeling about one team; others, I'm more or less guessing by picking one of two or three options.

I'm not doing it this year, though, because there are just too many possibilities and not enough meaningful ways to differentiate among them. I think there are close to ten teams with a legitimate chance to win the title.

But if you forced me to pick one right now, I'd pick Ohio State.

On Today: 12/17/2011

Ohio State at South Carolina (ESPN, noon Eastern)
"The Buckeyes rode Jared Sullinger's 30 points and 19 rebounds to a 79-57 rout of South Carolina last season. Senior forward Malik Cooke fuels coach Darrin Horn's Gamecocks."

Butler vs. Purdue (CBS, 2 p.m. Eastern)
"A rebuilding Butler squad needs big numbers from guard Chrishawn Hopkins, while Purdue counts on the scoring of forward Robbie Hummel. These teams last met in 2006."
(This game is being played at Conseco Fieldhouse in Indianapolis as part of the Crossroads Classic.)

Temple at Texas (ESPN2, 2:30 p.m. Eastern)
"Owls senior guards Juan Fernandez and Ramone Moore tussle with Texas freshmen Myck Kabongo and Sheldon McClellan. Temple squared the series at 2-2 with a win in the 2001 NCAA tournament."

Arizona vs. Gonzaga (CBS, 4 p.m. Eastern)
"Big men Solomon Hill and Jesse Perry lead the Wildcats against center Robert Sacre and the Zags. These last met in 2008. Arizona leads he series 3-0."
(This one is being played in Seattle. It's also the West Coast game that's part of CBS' regional coverage. Many markets will see Memphis at Louisville.)

Indiana vs. Notre Dame (ESPN2, 4:30 p.m. Eastern)
"Christian Watford and Cody Zeller of the unbeaten Hoosiers collide with forward Jack Cooley of Notre Dame, which bids for its third-straight win in the series after prevailing in 2004 and 2008."
(This game is being played at Conseco Fieldhouse in Indianapolis as part of the Crossroads Classic.)

Appalachian State at North Carolina (ESPNU, 6 p.m. Eastern)
"UConn transfer Omar Carter leads ASU against John Henson and the rangy Tar Heels."

Syracuse at North Carolina State (ESPN2, 6:30 p.m. Eastern)
"Seniors Kris Joseph and Scoop Jardine fuel the Orange against sophomores C.J. Leslie and Lorenzo Brown of State. Syracuse joins the Wolfpack in the ACC next season."

Houston vs. Oklahoma (ESPNU, 8 p.m. Eastern)
"Sophomore forwards Alandise Harris and Tyler Neal are players to watch."
(This game is being played at the Ford Center in Oklahoma City as part of the All-College Basketball Classic.)

Alabama vs. Kansas State (ESPNU, 10 p.m. Eastern)
Tide senior JaMychal Green takes on K-State freshman Thomas Gipson at power forward."
(This game is being played in Kansas City.)

New Mexico vs. Oklahoma State (ESPN2, 10:30 p.m. Eastern)
"Drew Gordon and LeBryan Nash are forwards in this Mountain West-Big 12 matchup."
(This game is being played at the Ford Center in Oklahoma City as part of the All-College Basketball Classic.)